Marquette’s Final Wisconsin Poll: Biden 48, Trump 43

Marquette University Law School’s final poll of the 2020 presidential race shows Joe Biden leading Donald Trump 48 percent to 43 percent, but six percent of likely voters refused to say which candidate they’re backing.

A slim majority of likely voters in Wisconsin approves of Trump’s handling of the economy, but a larger majority disapproves of his handling of the pandemic:

Trump’s handling of the economy: 51% approve, 48% disapprove. In early October, it was 51% approve, 45% disapprove. In May, it was 54% approve, 40% disapprove. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 28, 2020

Trump handling of coronavirus pandemic: 40% approve, 58% disapprove. In early October, it was 41% approve/56% disapprove. In May, it was 44% approve, 51% disapprove. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 28, 2020

Wisconsin voters favored the confirmation of Amy Coney Barrett to the U.S. Supreme Court by a ten-point margin:

48% say that if they had been in the US Senate, they would have voted to confirm Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court,, while 38% would have voted against confirmation. #mulawpoll

— MULawPoll (@MULawPoll) October 28, 2020

Trump now trails Biden by 6.4 points in the RealClearPolitics average of Wisconsin polls — almost identical to the 6.5-point margin by which he trailed Hillary Clinton in 2016 before scoring a stunning upset in the state.

The big difference between the 2016 and 2020 average of polls is that there are fewer undecided voters and Biden’s overall level of support is higher. Biden now leads Trump 50.3 percent to 43.9 percent in the RCP polling average. In the final 2016 average of Wisconsin polls, Clinton led Trump 46.8 percent to 40.3 percent. She lost the state 46.5 percent to 47.2 percent. That year, Clinton never topped 50 percent in RCP’s Wisconsin polling average.